The Coup in Myanmar

by Cavelle Dove

I found it hard not to cry when I received this message from a friend in Myanmar:

Dear Peter and Cavelle, please help Myanmar and our elected leaders, especially Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and our real president, Mr Win Myint.

By now I trust you have heard the news of the military coup in Myanmar on February 1. We'd like to take time to provide an update based on conversations with friends and colleagues in Myanmar, give you our perspective, and explain the impact to our continued work there. This may be a little long, so feel free to jump to the section that interests you most.

What is happening?

Myanmar's military has taken control of all areas of government and is purging those most closely tied to the elected National League of Democracy (NLD) party. Those who are being arrested and detained are those who lead within the NLD party including Aung San Suu Kyi, the Nobel laureate and defacto leader of the government, as well as U Win Myint, the President of the country. Additionally, hundreds of influential people—from entertainers to political activists to journalists—have been arrested to prevent them from inciting popular opposition. Many others have been placed under house detention.

The military has set an 8 PM to 4 AM curfew and has cut most forms of communication with the outside world through Facebook, Messenger, Twitter and Instagram. Most recently, internet was cut across the country and remains intermittent. The military is not interested in convincing the world that it means well. International pressure has almost no impact on decision-making; this is an internal fight for ultimate control of the country.

It is hard to imagine this coup coming at a worse time for Myanmar. On day 1 of the coup, the military shut down international airspace, forcing planes carrying Covid-19 vaccines to be turned away. With the challenges of the Covid-19 pandemic, a poverty rate that jumped from 16% to 60% last year [1], more than 700,000 Rohingya people displaced since 2017 [2], and continued ethnic armed conflicts, it is clear that the coup adds to an already troubled context and reduces any chance of peace and security in the near future.

[1] Based on data from Yangon and the Dry Zone, September 2020. Source: IFPRI.
[2] Source: UNHCR.

Why is this happening?

Following 50 years of military dictatorship, Myanmar has spent the past decade slowly building a new democratic government. Voter turnout in Myanmar's elections last November was incredibly strong and revealed that the country's population remains very committed to civilian rule. The NLD party under Aung San Suu Kyi’s leadership won the general elections in a landslide, picking up 83 percent of available seats in parliament. Meanwhile, the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) won just seven percent of parliamentary seats, an embarrassment for the army and particularly its leader, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing. The USDP and military cried foul after the elections.

The military claimed they staged the February 1 coup to restore democracy, but there is no rational reason to believe this claim. Many believe it is a power grab by General Min Hlaing. In June, Min Hlaing will turn 65 years, old, the mandatory retirement age in Myanmar. Once he returns to civilian life, he is widely expected to face charges of genocide in the International Criminal Court regarding the Rohingya as well as for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Kachin and Shan States. Ming Hlaing clearly has strong motivation to remain in power. He also has significant reputational and business interests to protect.

Regardless of their reasons, the military's coup allows them to reassert power and exact revenge upon the NLD. The question most Myanmar-based observers are still trying to answer is, what kind of coup is this? Will it lean to a Thai-style military coup, where life functions normally for most regardless of who is on top? Or is this a more direct attack on the social and political changes that have happened since 2012?

While the answer is likely in the middle, most serious pundits believe this period will be long and dark, and will likely represent the military's last and best chance to bury the NLD and close the chapter on Aung San Suu Kyi.

What’s Next?

Imagine if we woke up tomorrow to learn that all our elected and appointed government leaders were arrested overnight and relieved of their duties! This is precisely what has happened in Myanmar. The military has installed a new cabinet and leadership at every level of government. They have replaced the Directors of the Central Bank and are replacing anyone in the broader civil service installed by the NLD. Journalists have been arrested, and censorship is increasing. The military is working their way through a "to do list" for solidifying control: continued arrests of anyone who opposes them, attempts to secure the silence of ethnic and religious leaders, and new rules for future elections.

Support for Aung San Suu Kyi and her NLD party is widespread among both young and old in Myanmar.

Civil disobedience

It started with banging pots at 8 pm, a Buddhist practice to "chase away the devil." Nurses and the medical professionals in Mandalay region were next, putting a halt on their services. Thousands are now streaming into the streets to protest the coup, despite the new law prohibiting gatherings of five or more. Tensions and frustration levels are extremely high, and a shift to more confrontation is likely, with new reports coming in of violence and clashes with police. There is a real threat of an escalation of violence in coming days.

How long will this last?

The military has said it will be in control for one year, when new elections will be held. Yet the last two coups, which bore similar promises, lasted 26 and 25 years respectively. Political observers believe the military will hold onto power until they have a fair shot at winning an election. My closest colleague, an astute political observer, felt that it would take 20 years before we return to the sense of optimism that we had in Myanmar in 2015. Of course, we hope these predictions are in error, but past performance does not give optimism.

Yet it should be clear, the military in Myanmar has authority but not legitimacy. The people remain firmly supportive of the NLD. So the question is: how long can the military rule by force? The world has changed since the military's first coup in 1962 and second coup in 1988, with citizens who are more inter-connected and who have enjoyed a taste of democracy since 2015. Given the widespread acts of civil disobedience, it is hard to imagine the people of Myanmar accepting this government.

How does this affect our work in Myanmar?

Contact with JoyCorps' four fellows and two coaches over this past week has been intermittent. All are safe but in shock and dismay from the events. They are involved in the civil disobedience movement, from banging pots, to posting on Facebook their ideas on nonviolent resistance, to marching in the protests and organizing behind the scenes.

While it is early days to be predicting the economic impact on our fellows, we can also say with certainty that the coup has brought a chill on business and trading activities. Our commitment to our fellows and to Myanmar is unchanged, and they are some of the bravest, kindest people we know. Now, more than ever, Myanmar needs redemptive businesses that are rooted in character, centered on principles, and committed to the growth, development and flourishing of their communities and nation.

We are deeply engaged and invested in Myanmar and will do whatever we can to support our team and fellows during this time.

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CAVELLE DOVE is JoyCorps’ country director for Myanmar. She has lived and worked in Southeast Asia since 2002 and has managed economic development and aid programs in Thailand, Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia. She is the co-founder of a social business in Myanmar; the founder of an NGO in Thailand; and has developed shared value partnerships across government, private sector, and civil society to tackle root causes of poverty and make a positive change for people and planet. She enjoys building healthy teams and developing leaders. After 9 years in Yangon, Myanmar, Cavelle relocated to Calgary, Alberta in 2020 with her husband and three boys.